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Eidos holding off on release of most PS3 titles until
2008 - Eidos has confirmed that it won't be releasing
most of its major PS3 titles until next year, stating that
the console's installed base will not be high enough before
then. [GamesIndustry.biz news]

Huh, that doesn't bode well for the early life of the PS3, does it? I frequent a few places on this here Internet where fellow game devs hang out and the PS3's launches worldwide have so far, been the topics of lively conversation.

It seems like developers are split into 2 camps when it comes to the PS3 - those that WANT the PS3 to fail, and those that believe that no matter what happens, the PS3 will win this round of the console war. I find that interesting.

I can understand why people would want Sony to fail. The arrogance exhibited by the Sony execs has been galling, especially in the face of the consumer dissatisfaction with price and the moves of the other console makers in the space. It all added up to make Sony appear incredibly self-confident despite simultaneously holding this sort of desperate edge. To me it sorta made them out to be meth-addicts. Not literally, of course, but in terms of behavior. I've met a few meth-addicts in this business and they all act the way Sony does - they tell you to your face that everything is great and they're awesome, but then you find them later digging through the trash looking for something they can pawn for a quick score (like motion detection!).

So, like I said - I can understand wanting them to eat humble pie, but it's not at all realistic to think that Sony is actually going to fail, is it? I mean - it's in all the dev's of the world best interests to have several consoles on the market with large user bases going simultaneously. Why is this better than one dominate player? Simple... choice. Different consoles always appeal to different people, even if they're relatively similar (Say the 360 and the PS3) - sometimes it's just an image thing, but regardless each console will attract a different type of person to it. In other words - our potential market is both larger and, most important, more diverse when multiple consoles are successful simultaneously. Not only can we sell more copies to the users all the consoles share (by selling the game on all three consoles), but there's also more room for smaller titles to find an audience and succeed by targeting them to the specific console that attracts the players who will want your game (and thus saving the cost and time of porting the game to the other consoles).

In other words, sure - let the execs eat humble pie - but to wish for Sony to actual fail (as a developer) is to wish for less chances to make the game you want and to make a profit (bad for the artist and the businessman, both), doing it. It's just as bad as assuming Sony is going to be the "winnar" of this here "console war."

Sony is not winning. The PS3 is doing better than anyone guessed... in Europe, but in the rest of the world? Not so much. The Wii is kicking its ass in every region where the 360 isn't doing the ass kicking... and the Wii is kicking the ass of all the unrighteous (The 360 and PS3), wherever it roams. Based on demand and speed of sales, if anyone is going to win, it'll be Nintendo... but I doubt that'll be the case either. The thing is, the second you throw in your support for one horse or the other you've made a terribly awesome choice.

Imagine this: You want to work on "Hot Shit Title" (HST) and you're the ultimate Sony fanboy. You loudly proclaim that the PS3 will win and swear to never make a game this generation for anything else. Nothing wrong with that, right? Well... what if all of the sudden we learn the PS3 was actually a tool of terrorism, and that each box is botnetting the Internet when it's not in use and destroying critical infrastructure, world wide as prelude to global revolt... Pardon the extreme example, but imagine - the moment this was discovered (assuming it wasn't already too late), every PS3 would be destroyed or confiscated... Sony is suddenly totally out of the market... and you're fucked. Worse the fuckage is 2-fold... Not only do you have no platform to dev on, but since you were such a vocal fanboy about the PS3, everyone associated you with the terrorists (or whatever associated ill-will caused your dev platform to die). Not only can you not release... but you might have trouble finding a job later.

Of course, I deliberately chose an absurd scenario there. I bet some of you are pissed right now, thinking something akin to "That would never fucking happen, this is irrelevant, why did you waste my time you bastard?" I'll tell you why. What if instead of terrorism, it's book-cooking designed to make the music business Sony also owns look like it's still worth keeping? What if it's back-dated stock options and an SEC investigation (that's a big part of what's taking Take2 down right now)? What if it's simply that you charge too fucking much for your console and no one wants it (thankfully for Sony this has turned out to not be the case, but it could have gone that way)? A single platform can flame out and die before it's ever had a chance. This happens (where's your dreamcast?).

Betting on a single horse is as bad as betting that a single horse will drop out. You're just giving your money to the house... and since we have no "house" in this game, you're really just throwing your money away. If you're a dev, hell if you're player, fervently wish for ALL consoles to succeed like no console has ever succeeded before. You will get more, more diverse, better and cheaper games, as a result.

- Snipehunter

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